The Houston Texans play in one of the most lopsided divisions over the past five years in the NFL: The AFC South
While the Texans remain the betting favorite entering 2025 since they’re fresh off winning two division titles, that wasn’t always the case. Before DeMeco Ryans, the Jacksonville Jaguars were the betting favorites under then-new quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Before them, attention was flipped on the Tennessee Titans with the arrival of Ryan Tannehill and All-Pro Derrick Henry.
But amid the runs in Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Nashville, no one has been able to pose a strong threat down the stretch while making the postseason. Since that’s the case, NFL.com’s Eric Edholm ranked the AFC South as the eighth-best division in the league, slightly below the NFC South, which feels similar to Houston with Tampa Bay as the clear favorite and everyone else sitting in second place.
“The Texans stand atop the pack for now in the South, a division that has been down for a few years,” Edholm wrote. “While Houston didn’t take a tangible leap after a breakout 2023 season, two competitive playoff showings offer hope there might be untapped resources for DeMeco Ryans. If the offensive line improves, C.J. Stroud and Co. should be right back in the postseason and could do some serious damage.”
With the arrival of new head coach Liam Coen and No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter, Jacksonville feels like the biggest riser, though Edholm thinks the progression of Lawrence will play a factor in the standings by the time December rolls around.
“If Trevor Lawrence bounces back, this Jacksonville offense could be fun … even while the defense might still have a long way to go,” Edholm wrote.
With Tennessee, sights are on No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, who hopes to bring the same spark as Stroud and Jayden Daniels amid his rookie season in Nashville while saving Brian Callahan’s job.
“Ward might not be Jayden Daniels in Year 1, but it’s not hard to envision him adding major life to a passing game that was one of the league’s least dangerous a year ago,” Edholm wrote.
As for the Colts, no one knows what to make of the roster as Anthony Richardson is entering a prove-it year. The offensive line will be revamped after losing two starters, but Richardson, the former No. 4 overall pick in 2023, hasn’t proven that he can the franchise option while missing multiple games due to injury.
“Right now, we don’t know for sure when Richardson will return from injury, making Jones the unofficial leader in the competition,” Edholm wrote. “The Colts have some offensive building blocks, but the underwhelming QB situation and various roster holes (OL, linebacker and kicker, especially) have muted Indianapolis’ excitement level.”
While unfair to think one plays in a weak division, that’s a fair spot entering training camp. Despite the Texans winning double-digit games over the last two years, they haven’t proven to be a bona fide Super Bowl contender at the moment. The Titans and Jaguars, meanwhile, are still in full rebuild after picking top three and Indianapolis is just the same every season.
However, 2025 could be the year the South turns it around to return as one of the most unknown divisions in the NFL.
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