Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Pete Crow-Armstrong can’t steal first, Corbin Carroll running again

As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I’m here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

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Last week, I talked about José Caballero inching his way into more playing time for the Yankees and he just started three more games in a row while Anthony Volpe needed a spell on the bench.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Mark Vientos, Parker Messick, and Ian Seymour

Two new left-handed starters have appeared

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.

Francisco Lindor and Josh Lowe each finally seem healthy, but more on that below.

Corbin Carroll now has six stolen bases in 13 games since moving from first to third in the Diamondbacks’ lineup.

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Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.

Chandler Simpson will not stop running. He’s attempted 27 stolen bases since rejoining the Rays on June 24th. No other player has attempted more than 18.

Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths in the second half.

It’s time to start looking more specifically at trends from the second half.

Some players we expected to be stealing more bases like Luke Keaschall, Matt McLain, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are struggling with their efficiency.

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s days as a speedster are likely over.

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Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

Something happened with the Cardinals this week. Opposing teams attempted 17 total stolen bases against them and were successful 13 times in just six games.

The key culprits were Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore.

In Pallante’s first start of the week, four stolen bases were attempted. Three were successful and he even picked one runner off. That was his first successful pick-off of the season despite being inside the top-30 for pick-off attempts.

Pallante is known to be slow to the plate and allows larger leads than most pitchers in the league. He’s been targeted by base stealers this season and will continue to be so.

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Liberatore is a bit more of an interesting case. Four bases were stolen on him in fewer than five innings of work in his lone start last week. That pushed his season total to 16, fifth-most among all left-handed pitchers.

Lefties pitchers are supposed to be better at holding runners on. Yet, among lefties, he allows some of the largest leads and largest jumps. Expect Liberatore to continue being run on.

Second Half Base Stealers

We’re now six weeks past the All-Star break and some new stolen base trends among individual players are developing. Things like fatigue, team context, nagging injuries, or offensive struggles could stop players from stealing.

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Oneil Cruz has been near the top of the stolen base leaderboard all season, but has attempted just five in the second half. A .242 on-base percentage since the break is a huge reason for that. Also, in his first year as a center fielder compared to shortstop, there are certainly more miles on his legs compared to last season.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads all players with 12 steals in the second half. His first half was slowed by an oblique injury that he came back from very quickly, so a clean bill of health is probably pushing him to run more.

The same likely goes for Josh Lowe and Francisco Lindor who are among the leaders in stolen bases attempted with 12 and 11 respectively. Lowe has dealt with multiple flair-ups of an oblique injury this season that may be back again while Lindor broke his toe in early June and has only just seemed to get himself back on track.

As Pete Crow-Armstrong’s offensive production has dramatically tailed off, so has his base stealing. He’s just 4-for-7 in the second half after going 27-for-31 in the first, possibly playing on tilt trying to regain some of that early season magic.