While many fans in the UK ponder the early-season fortunes of their clubs, or perhaps debate selection for the imminent autumn internationals, the qualifying battle for the 2027 Rugby World Cup rages on.
Chile sealed their second consecutive appearance at the tournament with a sensational playoff win against Samoa last month, leaving a single spot to be won for Australia in two years’ time. On Saturday Paraguay stunned Brazil 39-19 in the first leg of their playoff. The second leg takes place this Saturday in Jacareí, near São Paulo, as Brazil’s men attempt to emulate the women and qualify for the first time.
Samoa, meanwhile, have not missed a Rugby World Cup since 1991, but are languishing in 16th place in the men’s rankings. They were winless in this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, leading to playoff misery against Chile, and the obligation to meet the likes of Belgium heaps indignity on a proud rugby nation.
The former fly-half Tusi Pisi was appointed head coach in April and the towering Saracens lock Theo McFarland is captain, but he was injured for most of the Pacific Nations Cup, and remains sidelined for his club.
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Beyond the fortunes of individual nations it is worth reflecting on how different the expanded competition will look in 2027. For the first time there will be a round of 16, with six pools of four rather than four pools of five. Pool-stage jeopardy is significantly reduced because the four best third-placed teams will qualify.
The hosts, Australia, are now ranked seventh in the world, meaning they would miss out on top seeding and meet one of South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England or Argentina in Pool A. They could climb into the top six during a busy November, however: England, Italy, Ireland and France are their opponents, with a fixture against Japan in Tokyo also on 25 October. Wales, meanwhile, are teetering in 12th, with Japan below, and the implications of dropping to 13th and into pot three are potentially severe.
Another new dimension for 2027 is the presence of five teams from the Americas: Argentina, Uruguay, USA, Canada and the aforementioned Chile: Paraguay or Brazil would make it six. From World Rugby’s perspective American interest is no bad thing, with the 2031 tournament to be hosted by the USA, and the process to select a host for 2035 was launched by the global governing body last month.
First things first, though. The second instalment of Brazil v Paraguay sets up a four-way Dubai shootout, along with a potential rankings shake-up across Europe in November. No matter how things pan out, Chile’s qualification for a second Rugby World Cup has already made them a resounding success story.
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