Wed, Sep 3, 2025, 4:30 PM 4 min read
Gold has been the ultimate and relatively safe bet among the various “Trump trades.” While President Donald Trump’s policies have been negative for companies that rely on imports, the tariff uncertainty has invariably been a boon for gold.
The precious metal has outperformed broader markets in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) up over 33% for the year. Gold mining companies, which tend to rise or fall more than gold prices, have also delivered stellar returns, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has gained over 90% this year.
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Gold mining companies are experiencing a rally of a lifetime, thanks to the record or near-record cash flows they are generating. Companies have used these bumper cash flows to deleverage their balance sheets and increase shareholder payouts through dividends and buybacks.
Among gold mining companies, Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) is a safe bet, given its strong balance sheet, low-cost operations, and robust mineral reserves. It has a long track record of paying dividends, and looking at the strength in gold prices, investors can expect more gains in the coming months after the 50% rally in the previous 6 months.
Most brokerages are bullish on gold and expect the yellow metal to continue its upward trajectory. UBS recently raised its gold price forecast and now sees prices rising to $3,600 per ounce in Q1 2026, $100 higher than its previous forecast. The brokerage also raised its forecast for Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 to $3,700 per ounce.
JPMorgan expects prices to average $3,675 per ounce in Q4 2025 and predicts them hitting $4,000 in Q2 2026. Citi, which had lowered its gold price forecast in June, also made a U-turn and raised its forecast last month.
Looking at the tariff turmoil, geopolitical uncertainty, investment demand (including from ETFs), and the de-dollarization drive among central banks, gold’s outlook looks bullish over the medium to long term. In the short term, global monetary policy easing, including what looks like an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, is a positive for gold.
Trump’s relentless tirade against the Fed can also support gold’s rally. Central bank independence is a hallmark of all modern economies, and any signs to the contrary are negative for markets and Treasuries, while being a positive for gold.
